Is it already time for the next generation of video game consoles? If you’re Nintendo, then the answer to that question is yes. Project Café is on its way (or possibly Nintendo FEEL – yikes), and it appears the gaming world will get a good look at it come E3 of this year.
So, why when you’ve sold roughly 80 million consoles would you need to start burning the fires of the production plant to pump out the next system? As I’ve harped on before, it’s because Nintendo’s strategy of selling consoles to casual gamers has painted them into a corner.
Casuals just don’t care
The problem with selling to casuals is that they’re not looking to extend their video game experience. Give them Wii Sports and the vast majority of them are supremely satisfied. As a result, the Wii’s attachment rate for games is paltry compared to say that of Xbox 360 and PS3.
Though neither of those systems sold at the astronomical levels that the Wii did, those consoles were sold mostly to gamers, who happen to buy at least three to five games per system.
Combine that with non-standardized technology and a mountain-full of shovelware, and few developers were willing to risk money to make AAA games a success on the biggest console seller. And those that did heed the Siren’s call of a huge user base, discovered what discerning minds already knew, no one who seriously plays video games only plays them on the Wii.
Moving in a new direction
Give props to Nintendo though, they’ve realized this fact and are not sugar-coating it any longer. I can recall past statements where developers weren’t getting the Wii. Apparently, that’s not the case any longer as Iwata himself thinks it was a mistake to position the Wii away from core gamers.
It’s more than just marketing speculation though; if the rumours are true, the next Wii is on its way, and its goal is to appeal to third-party developers, and ultimately core gamers.
Somewhere Michael Patcher must be smiling, because he called it all along, despite Nintendo’s numerous denials. The era of the Wii2 will begin sometime in 2012 – and first and foremost – it will be the dawn of the HD era for Nintendo.
Wii2 hardware speculation
If you’re going to make a system in this era, it’s going to have to be in high definition. With the Wii2 that much was certain since high definition televisions have been rapidly adopted over the past few years. But what else will the next Nintendo system contain – and what does the speculative hardware say about Nintendo’s chances for success.
From a horsepower perspective, it’s likely the Wii2 either be on par with the Xbox 360 and PS3, if not more or a little less powerful. Graphically and speed-wise, the new Wii will likely be on equal footing. A bigger question is storage – Nintendo has traditionally stayed away from in-built storage – but it’s likely (and cost-effective) that they go with a hard drive this time around.
Like whatever Microsoft comes up with in its next console, the new Wii probably won’t be sporting a Blu-ray drive – I think that’s something neither console maker wants to concede to Sony.
Now, here’s where the rumours get interesting. The reason the next Wii might be called FEEL is because it may have touch-sensitive screens in its controllers. Though initial projections say that the controller will have a traditional layout, the screen gives Nintendo a differentiator and a way to bridge the gap between casuals and core gamers (apparently, it will also have the waggle functionality of Nintendo’s Wiimote and Wii Motion Plus).
It also gives gamers the ability to interact with two screens, or stream content from one screen to the next (which explains the other rumoured name for the Wii2 – the Nintendo Stream). It also possibly opens the door to not using a controller to play the system, but the ability to play with a handheld – ahem, the DS or 3DS.
Can Nintendo compete – from a hardware perspective
If we’re talking pure horsepower, then yes it seems the next Nintendo is designed purely to run with Sony and Microsoft; however, from a cost perspective, I’m more than sceptical.
I have three systems already – adding a fourth to this cycle of consoles is a reach – especially if the rumours that the system will be priced around $400 are to be believed. Even as a core gamer with disposable income, you’d be hard pressed to convince me to buy a second console in five years.
Add to that the somewhat miserable buying experience with the Wii, where core gamers were proverbially left out in the cold, and I truly believe Nintendo is climbing a pretty steep hill. Sure, you’ll get fans and people excited about the next big thing, but I’m sure there will be an equal number of people who wait on the system to see what it offers – a lot of people will need to be convinced of the next Wii’s value.
Nintendo can’t afford for these people to wait too long – because they are potential sales that could likely be scooped up by Microsoft and Sony when their consoles come knocking in 2012 and beyond. Additionally, as the first entry in the next cycle, Nintendo’s next system is at great risk to be leap-frogged by the next Xbox or Playstation from a hardware perspective.
So what can Nintendo do? If they’re truly after the core gamer, it means the system is going to need AAA titles early and often, and more importantly, from developers other than Nintendo. If they really are serious about capturing that market, it means not just playing ports of existing games, it means delivering gaming experiences that truly define the next cycle of consoles.
Can Nintendo compete – from a marketing perspective
It seems like Nintendo is coming full circle. One of the reasons for the Wii’s inception was Nintendo’s realization that they were no longer adequately equipped to compete with Sony and Microsoft for the core gamer. If anything, the rough ride that was the GameCube solidified Nintendo’s blue ocean strategy of appealing to casuals in the next go-round.
As I’ve mentioned before, the problem with that strategy is that it painted Nintendo into a corner. Casuals are not gamers – they don’t buy games regularly (if at all), they don’t invest time researching which games are good, and they are not console (or arguably channel) loyal.
You can sell a lot of systems to excited casuals, but not a lot of games. Worse still, casuals have no loyalty to you – they are not fans and they will move to the next big thing with no hesitation. If anything, this threat is emerging in the casual games market found on the iPhone and Facebook – these are serious competitors to Nintendo because the products they make are convenient and cheap, and appeal to the same user base.
Further, the casual user base is a one-shot deal, particularly when we’re talking a second console in five years. If Nintendo can’t get casuals to buy more than one or two games from its current system, what are its chances convincing them to buy another system entirely? I don’t think they are very good.
Where does this put Nintendo? Some think they might go back to core gamers, but that’s an equally dangerous strategy. Xbox and Playstation are no longer new, unproven concepts. Their brands now have significant history and cache with gaming enthusiasts – and the gaming world in general is one that tends to maintain strong tribal associations.
Whether it’s to a specific console (the typical fanboy), or to gaming in general – my informal impression is that the Wii is not considered a serious gaming device. Additionally, Microsoft and Sony, in competing for this market, have gotten very good at appealing to gamers, developing their own niches and communicating their value propositions. Nintendo struggled to appeal to core gamers with the GameCube – where will the company be now, nearly ten years later, against better prepared competition?
Well, success starts with games. If you’re going to appeal to the core, you’re going to need games they want to play – and games that can’t be played on the other guys’ systems. If the rumours are true, Nintendo is courting big names like Rockstar and Capcom.
They’ll need high-end developer support – and it will need to be continual because one or two games just won’t be enough to move the market to purchase – any core gamer who’s been burned by the Wii will take that much more convincing.
It’s a good thing Nintendo is so flush with cash from the previous cycle because it’s going to cost significant dollars to woo developers to the new system – and further, publish and market games that demonstrate a strong vision of how the next generation of consoles will be defined, while also motivating gamers to forget about Nintendo’s last one.
Some lingering questions
Is Nintendo going after core gamers?
In a recent Destructoid article, a valid point was made – why would Nintendo go for the core gamer market? As I mentioned above, this is the same market that didn’t do Nintendo any favours on the GameCube. Though finicky, casual gamers represent a lot of dollars. Perhaps, Project Café represents an upgraded version of the Wii, with better graphics and processing and its own unique functionality – via handheld screens. Here are the big issues I see with this approach:
The trouble with causals
- · If Nintendo makes the system too quirky, it will be too costly for developers to make ports of games on it – thus no games – like the Wii
- · If Project Café is an upgraded Wii – it will have an upgraded cost – can Nintendo really convince casual gamers to shell out $400?
- · Casual gamers just repeats the previous issues – low attachment rates and low loyalty
If they go the other way and try to appeal to core gamers, and all the Call of Duty’s that entails – they run into the following problems:
The trouble with cores:
- · If the system is only slightly better, most developers will make ports of games – why would anyone bother buying a system that plays games they can play on systems they already own?
- · Nintendo’s reputation and image as a core gaming company is non-existent – it means a lot of dollars convincing developers, media and ultimately gamers frozen out by the Wii
- · Being first means being leap-frogged by Sony and Microsoft who will play the wait-and-see-approach and then try to capitalize with stronger hardware
I suspect Nintendo will try to appeal to both worlds – using an upgraded system to leverage its unique IPs in order to appeal to core gamers , while trying to provide enough quirky functionality to try to appeal to the casual market again.
The risk they run is simply this – go too far towards core and they’ll lose the casuals and end up competing with better prepared competition that will eventually have better hardware.
Go too far toward casuals and they repeat the Wii’s mistakes – make a system that’s difficult to develop for, and doesn’t sell enough to justify the effort – thus being relinquished to the dreaded causal zone.
I’m curious and hopeful for Nintendo’s efforts, but honestly it’s the most treacherous path I think they’ve ever taken. Because as the old saying goes…try to satisfy everyone and you end up what….?
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